NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. After an electric start to the season at Daytona and two quick 1.5-mile paths in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Dragon Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race at the tighter quarters of this one-mile loop in ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the previous five March races at this track and is the 9-4 preferred to collect another win in the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch reaches 30-1 NASCAR at Phoenix odds after a solid start to his period that has him at eighth in the NASCAR standings. Prior to making your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 picks, make sure you check at the NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and current results into consideration.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR this past year, such as correctly casting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. And it is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano in its own projected top five. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like ISM Raceway have been in his blood. His model has simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For your 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could inform you that the model is top on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot 25-1 NASCAR chances. He is a target for anyone searching for a massive payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win and proceeded to catch a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to some 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has shown impressive speed at times. Bowyer has seven career top-10s in Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who pushes for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in one of this year’s Daytona Duels and closed out a year’s NASCAR schedule using an eight-place finish at Homestead. He’ll also come armed to the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 using a similar car setup to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

Among the shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix chooses from the model: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner in ISM Raceway and the top Vegas favourite, makes a strong run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently at this particular track. In Reality, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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