BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Canada. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play on the board this week and she also has 100+ stage upside. She’s a lock within my money games this week and that I don’t really see how she loses. I think a submission could be Moras’ best opportunity but she is not capable of finding the fight to the floor, so I see her becoming dominated on the feet until the ref measures. She is by far my favourite play at the $9k selection and she’s a -750 on the betting line. I like playing it safer in cash games and I think she’s a safe win this week.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me and he’ll be the chalk of the week. I’ll continue to be obese on Merab though. His style is precisely what we need on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop speed and he shoots for takedowns very often. He’s 22 landed takedowns in his first 3 UFC fights and that is his very best path to victory in this matchup as well. Even with 2 losses on his record from those 3 fights, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP play of the week since I understand he’s going to win, I just know IF he wins that he will score highly, and he should easily reach value within an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog play of the week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must select Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed along with the winner of the fight will definitely be on the first-place lineup. Particularly if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to work with here. I really don’t find a situation in which he wins and doesn’t wind up about the $25k lineup. I’ll be obese on Saturdays this week, but this is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy isn’t in a one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I will be heavier on the Cowboy side though and I believe he gets the work done by entry.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st place lineup this week. I’d be surprised to see him get 10x his $8k cost and that is why I have zero lineups with this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is simply not good for DraftKings. He will need to knock Brunson out if he’s going to score highly and he isn’t a power puncher. I think you are better off carrying Elias from TKO on the gambling line in +870. I really don’t see any reason to spend in this week in GPPs since he does not possess the ceiling we want to win that large $25k. I believe he’s fine in cash games because a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us there. But he’s a simple fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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